Current and Future Spatial Distribution of the Genus Cinchona in Peru: Opportunities for Conservation in the Face of Climate Change

Abstract

The genus Cinchona belongs to the Rubiaceae family and comprises native Peruvian tree species distributed in tropical areas. It is currently endangered due to human disturbance and overexploitation for medicinal, forestry and food uses. To date, the current and future distribution of Cinchona spp. under the climate change scenario is unknown. Here, we modeled the present and future spatial distribution of the genus Cinchona using bioclimatic, edaphic and topographic variables using the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The results indicate that 8.08% (103,547.89 km2) and 6.02% (77,163.81 km2) of the surface of Peru possesses areas with high and moderate distribution probabilities, respectively, to host the genus Cinchona, distributed mainly in the departments of Cusco, Amazonas, San Martín and Cajamarca. Furthermore, according to future climate scenarios, the areas of high suitability will increase their extension for the years 2050 and 2070 by 3.65% and 3.9%, respectively. Since Peru seeks to promote the forest sector to be the other force for its development, this study can be considered as a basis for the establishment of priority zones for the conservation, restoration, reforestation and sustainable management of Cinchona spp. species in Peru.