Current and Future Spatial Distribution of the Aedes aegypti in Peru Based on Topoclimatic Analysis and Climate Change Scenarios

Ocaña Zúñiga,Candy Lisbeth

Current and Future Spatial Distribution of the Aedes aegypti in Peru Based on Topoclimatic Analysis and Climate Change Scenarios

dc.contributor.author	Ocaña Zúñiga,Candy Lisbeth
dc.date.accessioned	2026-01-22T20:22:37Z
dc.date.available	2026-01-22T20:22:37Z
dc.date.issued	2025-05-02
dc.description.abstract	Dengue, a febrile disease that has caused epidemics and deaths in South America, especially Peru, is vectored by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Despite the seriousness of dengue fever, and the expanding range of Ae. aegypti, future distributions of the vector and disease in the context of climate change have not yet been clearly determined. Expanding on previous findings, our study employed bioclimatic and topographic variables to model both the present and future distribution of the Ae. aegypti mosquito using the Maximum Entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). The results indicate that 10.23% (132,053.96 km2) and 23.65% (305,253.82 km2) of Peru’s surface area possess regions with high and moderate distribution probabilities, respectively, predominantly located in the departments of San Martín, Piura, Loreto, Lambayeque, Cajamarca, Amazonas, and Cusco. Moreover, based on projected future climate scenarios, it is anticipated that areas with a high probability of Ae. aegypti distribution will undergo expansion; specifically, the extent of these areas is estimated to increase by 4.47% and 2.99% by the years 2070 and 2100, respectively, under SSP2-4.5 in the HadGEM-GC31-LL model. Given the increasing dengue epidemic in Peru in recent years, our study seeks to identify tools for effectively addressing this pressing public health concern. Consequently, this research serves as a foundational framework for assessing areas with the highest likelihood of Ae. aegypti distribution in response to projected climate change in the second half of the 21st century.
dc.format	application/pdf
dc.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.3390/insects16050487
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14689/1064
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.publisher	Insects
dc.publisher.country	CH
dc.rights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.source	Universidad Nacional de Jaén\|\|Repositorio Institucional – UNJ
dc.subject	spatial distribution
dc.subject	epidemic
dc.subject	MaxEnt
dc.subject	dengue
dc.subject	climate change
dc.subject.ocde	https://purl.org/pe-repo/ocde/ford#1.05.00
dc.title	Current and Future Spatial Distribution of the Aedes aegypti in Peru Based on Topoclimatic Analysis and Climate Change Scenarios
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.version	info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
renati.author.dni	44798819